2b.4 In-play Example of Calibration Analysis

A step by step analysis will be presented for in-play odd fluctuations for market Under 2.5 market during the game of Auxerre and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), played at 15-04-2012. The final score of the game was (1-1), with goal times at 23´(0-1) & 86´(1-1).

The analysis includes in-play predictions for the odds every 10min during the game, generated by OddsCompiler Platform and compare calculated odds with Betfair Exchange odds.

The assumptions of Oddscompiling was:

  1. Auxerre games as Home and PSG games as Away

  2. Seasons:

Before the first goal : 2011-2012

After the first goal : 2011-2012 & 2010-2011

 

Table and diagram below show the results.

From the results it seems there is an excellent fit between calculated in-play odds and Betfair Exchange odds.