4a.3 Classification for Success Rate vs probability

When you follow an oddscompiling methodology so as to calculate probability and odds, the most importand think is to know the success rates of your methodology.

An accepted success rate is the success rate which is at least equal or more to the calculated probability.

Eg.

When there is 100 number of proposed bets with probability 50% that means, you are waiting 50 number of those bets to succeed. If this is happen then success rate much be equal to the calculated probability.

For that reason we classify SR according to the value of the calculated probability.

Classification for Success Rate compared to Probability:

below : When SR is below probability spacing

ok : When SR is inside probability spacing

above : When SR is more than probability spacing

As can be seen the results are very helpful. So,

Home Wins:

If you bet at probabilities between 25-30%, 40-45% and 70-80% you may have success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 45-70% to have higher or equal success rates.

Away Wins:

Bet with probabilities between 25-30%, 35-40% and 50-55% may resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 40-50% to have higher or equal success rates.

Draws:

All bets at Draws resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities. It is preferable to follow a different methodology to have better success rates for Draws.

Under 2.5:

Bet with probabilities between 30-35% and 60-65% may resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 35-60% to have higher or equal success rates.

Over 1.5:

Bet with probabilities between 55-60% and 70-85% may resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 60-70% to have higher or equal success rates.

Home Wins:

If you bet at probabilities between 20-50% you may have success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 50-80% to have higher or equal success rates.

Away Wins:

Bet with probabilities between 25-35% and 60-65% may resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 35-60% to have higher or equal success rates.

Draws:

Bet with probabilities between 35-45% may resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 20-35% to have higher or equal success rates.

Under 2.5:

Almost all betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 20-60% may have higher or equal success rates.

Over 1.5:

Bet with probabilities between 75-100% may resulted in success rates below the calculated probabilities.

It is better to follow betpractice proposals of bets with probabilities between 55-75% to have higher or equal success rates.

Is very important to understand that if you have a success rate below the calculated probability, this is not always a worse case for your betting system.

Your profits depends on the price you buy the bets and your long term yield of profit. Let’s make an example.

Important Notice:

You bet at 10 number of bets with probability 60% to win each one of your bet.

But unfortunately you win only 4 of them. That mean a success rate SR=4/10=40%, below the expected probability.

Although you have won only 4 of the 10 bets, you may have a profit because it depends of the bookmaker’s betting odds you had place your bets.