5.2 Methodology to choose a future winning bet
On lesson 4a we have discussed about success rates and classification tables.
There are two parameters for someone to search for a short term winning bet:
The probability of the bet
To have the calculated probability of a bet is easy, but you must be sure that the methodology followed to calculate this probability results in a good success rate.
There are many websites that propose probabilities for bets, but who knows the success rate for that?
To have success rates of bets you need a personal database of your betting systems and their characteristics. This is a very difficult case even though for professional punters.
In our lesson we are going to use platform “System Hunter” which is available to filter previous calculated probabilities of bets, so as to find success rates and yield profits.
Let’s start our methodology:
Focus on Home wins looking at the advanced Betpractice Coupon.
According to betpactice methodology the probability of “Home win” for the game,
Hull City vs Bristol City is 54.05% at 02-04-2016.
Although this is a high value of probability, it is necessary to search if the success rate for the methodology of betpractice with reference to Championship league results is acceptable.
We can search success rates with “System Hunter” platform.
At the table below we have selected England Championship, “Home win” and a searching period for previous bets from August 2014 to July 2015.
At “System Hunter” platform we filtered the probability from 50% to 55%.
According the period August 2014 to July 2015 betpractice has calculated probabilities for “Home wins”:
from 68 number of bets with probability between 50% to 55%, 41 of them succeed.
Analytical results of some of the games, the calculated probabilities and the FT score of the games.
The success rate for this probability spacing from 50% to 55% was SR(50-55)=60.29%, which is above the calculated probability spacing.
Having a success rate well above the probability spacing 50%-55%, we can trust the bet for Hull City to win.