5.4 Methodology for an in-play exit strategy
It is very difficult to make an exit strategy during the game if the score is opposite of your betting. The difficulty is mainly because:
You need an in-play statistical tool
You need to know the in-play bookmaker odds
Take the above example of England Champioship for the game Hull City vs Bristol City.
Score against my Betting:
Let’s assume the game has already started and the score is 0-2 at the Half time.
That means at that moment I lose 133.44€ (par. 5.3).
Use Oddscompiler Platform to study the in-play statistics of the game.
Assuming a historical database of previous seasons from 2011 up to 2016, I have a clear picture of what the statistics “say” to me.
The probability for score (0-3) is zero or better there is no previous cases of historical matches with that score. So, we think it is very rare for the game to end with that score.
The probability for score (1-2) is 33% and the probability for the current score (0-2) to remain until the end of the game is also 33%.
For score (1-2) there is a zero loss.
If you strongly believe that score (0-2) will be the final score, then make a zero loss.
Let’s assume the in-play odd for score (0-2) is 4.0.
I use the assistant to make a zero loss for score (0-2). For than I need a profit 133.44€.
I need a stake 44.48€.
By inserting the stake 44.48€ at the score (0-2) we make a zero loss at this score.
This zero loss change my initial betting plan because now I have a loss at score (1-2) and an increase loss at score (0-3).