7.5 Platform for pre-game Odds Movements
The basic rule to predict how the odds move before the kick off, is to compare the “real” odd derived from pure statistics with the bookmakers odd.
Let’s make a real example from the game: Leeds vs Wolves at 19-04-2016 Eng Championship
Using OddsCompiler Platform we take a picture of “real” odds.
Focus on Under2.5 market, the “real” odd is 1.69.
Investigating the history of the same odd at bet365 we take the diagram below:
During the day odds for Under2.5 moved from a high price to a lower one as:
At 17-04-2016: Time 07:55
Under 2.5 = 1.80
At 17-04-2016: Time 13:31
Under 2.5 = 1.67
When bet365 offered Under 2.5 at 07:55 with odd=1.80 you could have imagine that this price is going to shorten because the “real” price is 1.69.
Finally, at 13:31 bet365 offered Under2.5 with odd=1.67.
So we can make a rule:
Bookmakers Odd movement rule before the kick off:
“Real” Odd < Bookmakers Odd then Bookmakers Odd may shorten
“Real” Odd > Bookmakers Odd then Bookmakers Odd may increase
“Real” odd is the calculated odd shown on betpractice studio or derived individually from OddsCompiler Plartform
Betpractice Studio: “Search” Platform
In Betpractice Studio there is a very interesting “Search” platform where you can take a quick picture about “real” odds positions compared to bookmakers odd.
Have an example
In this platform there is a comparison between “real” odds and bookmakers odd in this case bet365.
Eg. at the game «Cesena vs Pro Vercelli» 02-05-2016 “real” odd for Under2.5 is 1.66 and the corresponding value for bet365 is 1.80.
This is a case where the price of 1.80 (bet365) may reduce.
At the opposite hand at the game «Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart» 02-05-2016 “real” odd for Over2.5 is 1.65 and the corresponding value for bet365 is 1.44.
This is a case where the price of 1.44 (bet365) may increase.