7a.1 LAY THE DRAW
A very famous in-play trading strategy is to Lay the Draw before the kick of and Back the Draw after the first goal.
While there is no goal prices of the Draw increases and when there is a goal there is a sharp reduction of Draw prices.
The most critical point of this strategy is to have the first goal very soon, because we Lay the draw and after the first goal we expect the Back price to increase much more than the initial Lay price.
If the first goal come late (eg. at the second half) then we may lose money because Back price will be lower than Lay price.
I will use an example of the game Angers vs Olimpique Marseille, France Ligue 1 on 01-05-2016.
Figure shows Betfair Exchange minutes before the kick of.
Trading Analysis of the Game
Using OddsCompiler it is clear that assuming data sample of the two teams (Angers as Home and Olympique as Away) doesn’t coincides with betfairs odds .
This difference from betfair odds must be because Angers is a new team in Ligue 1 and Olympique is a strong favorite.
It is better to use data sample only from Olympique as Away as it is shown below.
Assumptions only of Olympique as Home shown better concise with betfair odds.
According to the analysis score (0-0) is very rare as a final score of a game.
Using NextGoal Predictor there is a strong indication with probability 52.78% to have one or more goals until the 45min of the game.
In-play progress of the game
Elapsed Time : 1min
Lay The Draw : 3.35
After the First Goal:
Elapsed Time : 26min
Back The Draw : 4.30
I will use ScoreGrid to show you the trading betting you could have done.
Before the Kick off:
Lay the Draw at 3.25 with 100€
After the first Goal:
Back the Draw at 4.30 with 75.58€
You win 24.42€ at all possible scores of the game.
Use the ScoreGrid calculator to find the available stake for the back bet.
In case there was no goal, then you actually lose money because the score is (0-0).
Also, if the first goal come very late let’s say after 50min it is also a problem because the back price of the Draw will be lower than the initial Lay price.
You can exit from this situation by reducing the loss using the Advanced ScoreGrid Assistant:
You can find the min value of score 0-0 so as not to lose money.
Using Case "Minimum Price" insert your loss of the score 225€ and the profit 100€ from the other scores and you get the min value 3.25.
If you place 100€ with the price 3.25 then you don’t loss money for (0-0), (1-0), (0-1) etc.
You only loss money at (1-1), (2-2) etc but more than 225€, so be careful.
Look the case at scoregrid.