7a.2 BACK UNDER 2.5 FROM 0 TO 15min

A very famous in-play trading strategy is Back Under 2.5 before the kick of and Lay Under 2.5 at about 10min to 15min.

While there is no goal prices the prices of Under 2.5 reduces because the probability for the game to end with Under 2.5 goal

The most critical point of this strategy is to have a goal between 0 to 15min.

 

I will use an example of the game Como vs Ternana, Italy Serie B on 01-05-2016.

Figure shows Betfair Exchange minutes before the kick of.

 


 

Trading Analysis of the Game

I use NextGoal Predictor to calculate the possibility to have a goal at the first minutes of the game.

I make two scenarios.

  • First scenario to start trading before the kick of (time=0) and exit trading at 15min. This case gives probability 76.27% for 0-0 to remain

  • Second scenario to start trading at elapsed 5min and exit trading at 15min. This case give probability 80.36% for 0-0 to remain

 

Prediction Analysis From 0 to 15min


 

Prediction Analysis From 5min to 15min


I will choose the first scenario because the probability for (0-0) to remain is high in both cases.


 

In-play progress of the game

Elapsed Time : Before the Kick of (4min before)

Back Under 2.5 : 1.81

 


 

Elapsed Time : 15min

Lay Under 2.5 : 1.64

 


 

Trading Betting

I will use ScoreGrid to show you the trading betting you could have done.

Before the Kick off:

Back Under 2.5 at 1.81 with 100€

Elapsed 15min:

Lay Under 2.5 at 1.64 with 110.37€

 

 

You win 10.36€ at all possible scores of the game.

 

Note:

Use the ScoreGrid calculator to find the available stake for the back bet.


 

Exit Strategy

In case there is a goal between at the first 15min, the situation will be as it shows below.

You win but if there are more than two goals, then you will lose.

 

 

The best is to wait until the end of the game. If the score is (2-0) or (1-1) or (0-2) then use System Assistant.

If eg the score is (2-1) then make a zero lose.

Assuming that score (2-1) may have a price about 3.0 then use case "Zero Loss Score" to make a zero loss at this score.

 

 

If the price for score (2-1) is 3.0 and you place 50€, then you have zero loss at (2-1) and 150€ at the other scores.

If the score change again try again to make a zero loss at the other scores.

 


 

Note:

Be careful, if the score change at the last minutes of the game, then score prices will be very low.

If for example the price for (2-1) was 1.50 then using System Assistant.

 

 


Although you make zero loss at (2-1), you may lose -300€ if the score change again.