5a.1 Short Term Strategy: Over 1.5 & Score (1-0)

We should demonstrate this strategy in three main parts.

1. Analyze the bet

2. Betting Plan

3. In play Exit Strategy

Analysis of the bet:

I will chose the Game:

Sheffield United vs Crewe Alexandra at 25-03-2016 England League 1.

From a depth analysis using OddCompiler Platform I use a sample from seasons 2014-2015 & 2015-2016 (up to 25-03-2016),

Results:

15 from 81 matches ended Under 1.5 goals.

That means 66 matches ended with Over1.5 goals thus:

Probability for Over 1.5 = (66/81) = 81.48%

Having calculated the probability for Over1.5, I check the Success Rate.

Using System Hunter Platform, for a period Aug 2014 to Jul 2015 and probability spacing 80% to 85%:

Success Rate (80-85) = 71.70%

The success rate is lower than the calculated probability.

P = 81.48%

SR = 71.70%

Although the SR is lower than P, I can continue to bet at Over 1,5 because the success rate 71.70% has a big value of success.

Betting at Over1.5 goals with 71.70% success is a great bet.

Betting Plan:

According to OddsCompiling probability for the game to ended Under1.5 is 18.52%, which is divided to the scores below:

(0-0)      is 2,47%

(1-0)      is 8,64%

(0-1)      is 7,41%

If I bet at Over1.5 and Score(1-0) I have a total probability to win which is:

P= (81.48% + 8.64%) = 90.12%    (this is statistical probability not a success rate)

I bet 100€ at Over 1.5 with 1.29 odd.

Following the system assistant case "Equal Profit", I need a stake of 16,53 for Score (1-0) to make an equilibrium profit with bet Over1.5.

Finally I insert a stake 16.5€ at Score (1-0) with odd 7.8, I win 12.50€ at all scores except (0-0) and (0-1).

In play Exit Strategy:

Having already placed two bets at Over 1.5 and (1-0) you lose 116.50€ at (0-0) and (0-1).

This is not a problem. Get in-play the game and wait the score.

If the game go against and you believe it is going to finish (0-1), then make a reduction of the Loss.

Use ScoreGrid Calculator to find the appropriate stake and odd to make zero loss at score (0-1).

Let’s assume the odd for score (0-1) in-play the game is 4.0.

At the picture below you lose 0€ at score (0-1).

If unfortunately the score change to (1-1) or (0-2) you only lose 26.34€ (not the initial loss of 116.50€).