7.2 Odds Movements before the Kick Off
Betting odds published weeks before a football game. It is a long period and many things can change during that period.
One parameter that may move the odds up or down, is the change of the implied probability to win or not during the period before the kick off. Announcements of team’s news, player’s injuries, people’s public opinions etc may change the probability of the event and may cause bookmakers to move the odds.
A second parameter that may cause bookmakers to move the odds is the liquidity of betting transactions in betting markets.
For example, if the majority of punters bet on Home team to win and nobody bet on Away or on Draw, bookmakers must move the odds to make Away and Draw markets more attractive for betting.
In that case, they have to reduce the odds of the Home win and to increase the odds for Away and Draw.
If bookmakers don’t make these corrections of the odds, they will not achieve an added value between betting transactions and they may lose money.
The diagram below shows how Ladbrokes, William Hill and Betfair Sportsbook change the odd prices for a away team to win before the kick of.
Away Team to win: Prices moves before the game